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What to Do When You're Expecting an Increase in Cash Flow Pressure

What to Do When You're Expecting an Increase in Cash Flow Pressure

Cash flow pressure rarely arrives without warning. A big quarterly bill, a slow season, an EOFY run of ATO obligations, Payday Super landing on every pay run. You can usually see the squeeze coming weeks out. The businesses that get through it are not the ones with the most cash. They are the ones who used that warning to act early.

NAB’s SME survey has cash flow as the number one concern for 43% of Australian small and medium businesses, so this is the moment most owners share.

Here is the tactical playbook for the weeks before the pressure hits.

1. Build the forward view first

You cannot manage a squeeze you have not dated. Map cash in and cash out week by week for the next 13 weeks, starting from your bank balance, not your P&L. Find the lowest point and the exact week it happens.

business.gov.au flags the warning signs — leaning on credit, delaying suppliers, struggling to pay bills — as evidence your cash flow is under pressure. Catch them on a forecast, not in your account.

2. Quarantine the trust money

The fastest way to turn a timing problem into a compliance problem is to spend money that was never yours. Keep GST, PAYG withholding and super in a separate account as it accrues. ATO Assistant Commissioner Angela Allen puts it plainly, warning owners not to dip into collected GST or PAYG as a way to bolster cash flow. It feels like a fix. It is a bigger bill later.

3. Pull inflows forward, push controllable outflows back

Chase aged debtors now, not after the trough. Shorten payment terms where you can, invoice the day work is delivered, and ask for deposits on larger jobs. On the other side, defer any supplier with flexible terms, but pay the ATO first: the general interest charge has been running near 11% and, since 1 July 2025, is no longer deductible, which makes it one of the dearest ways to fund a business.

4. Line up funding while you still look strong

Arrange an overdraft or facility before the numbers turn, because credit is cheapest and easiest to secure when you do not yet need it. A line of credit is built for short term timing gaps. If you are drawing on it every month to cover normal costs, that is a signal the underlying position needs work, not more credit.

5. Cut discretionary spend before it is committed

The easiest dollar to save is the one you have not promised yet. Freeze the spend you have not committed and any hire that can wait until after the low point clears. Control the commitment, not just the payment.

If your team uses pre-approved budgets with hard limits, this becomes a configuration change rather than a conversation. Reduce the budget, and the system enforces it at point of sale.

If you still cannot meet an obligation

If, after all that, a forecast still shows you cannot meet an obligation, call the ATO or your adviser before the due date. Proposing a plan early protects you far better than going silent.

Pressure you can see coming is a scheduling problem. Pressure you ignore becomes a crisis. Control should happen before money is spent, not after.